Mental Models: Certainty Bias

WE CRAVE CERTAINTY AND MORE LIKELY TO TAKE ACTION IF SPECIFIC INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE.

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How might this apply to great teams and cultures?

Should my team structure be fixed or variable? Should my funding be fixed or variable? Should the plan reflect fixed expectations or variable possibilities? The reality is, it’s neither one of those isolated notions, but rather both of them enabling organization’s performance in concert with each other.

How might this apply to great products?

Ambiguity can trigger a threat response resulting in anxiety. Used in small doses — such as a curious challenge — mild uncertainty can focus attention (especially where people have developed routines). But ambiguity may also lead to inaction: people are less likely to act on vague information.

Consider

What information do you provide to help people make decisions? Are you intentionally creating an environment of certainty or uncertainty?

See Also

Framing, Anchoring & Adjustment, Chunking, Story, Sequencing, Limited Choice, Curiosity


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In the whirl of our day-to-day interactions, it’s all too easy to forget the nuances that distinguish great teams, great cultures, and great products/services.

Mental Model Flash Cards bring together insights from psychology into an easy reference and brainstorming tool. Each card describes one insight into human behavior and suggests ways to apply this to your teams as well as the design of your products and services.